Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets extinct? Six potential shockers in 2026 that could end the drought
The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. Power conference teams have dominated FCS opponents, winning 125 straight games. The last upset occurred in 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford. But is this trend here to stay?
The transfer portal and NIL have significantly impacted the talent drain, making it harder for FCS programs to retain their best players. Since 2022, FBS power conference teams have dominated FCS opponents with a 223-2 record. This shift is evident when compared to the previous 16 seasons, where power conference teams were 747-38 against FCS opponents.
Even Group of Six teams have struggled, going 238-20 against FCS competition in the past four seasons, down from the previous 16 years. The talent drain is evident, with proven FCS members like North Dakota State and Jacksonville State making the jump to the FBS.
Breaking the streak may require a perfect alignment and luck for the FCS. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups in 2026, the focus is on six potential upsets.
South Dakota State at Northwestern: South Dakota State, led by quarterback Chase Mason, seeks to end Northwestern's dominance. The Jackrabbits have struggled against Power Four opponents but have the talent to cause an upset.
Youngstown State at Kentucky: Kentucky's high expectations face a challenging test in Will Stein's era. Youngstown State, led by Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, has the quarterback to make it uncomfortable.
North Dakota at Nebraska: Nebraska, under Matt Rhule, hasn't lost to an FCS opponent. North Dakota, with dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State.
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State: Mississippi State's schedule and roster turnover create uncertainty. Tennessee Tech, with a strong transfer class, could exploit this.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt, post-Diego Pavia, faces a step back. Austin Peay, led by Walter Payton Award finalist Chris Parson, has the talent to make it hurt.
Monmouth at West Virginia: West Virginia, under Rich Rodriguez, has a new roster. Monmouth, a consistent Group of Six challenger, could cause an upset with uncertainty in the Mountaineers' lineup.
These potential upsets highlight the evolving nature of college football. While the gap widens, the possibility of an upset remains, keeping the sport exciting and unpredictable.
