The recent announcement by the international committee responsible for official IPCC scenarios that the high-end scenarios, including RCP8.5, are implausible has sparked a debate about the future of climate research and policy. This development is significant because these scenarios have dominated climate science and public discourse for the past two decades. However, the mainstream media's response to this news has been largely absent, particularly in English-language outlets.
The Dutch media has been at the forefront of this coverage, with De Volkskrant running a front-page story on the topic. The lead author of the ScenarioMIP paper, Detlef van Vuuren, who works at Utrecht University and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, was quoted as saying that the consequences of 3.5°C warming are 'vervelend genoeg' (bad enough already). This framing, however, misuses the new high-end scenario, as it was intended to be an exploratory 'what if?' exercise, not a projective reference scenario.
In my opinion, the absence of coverage in English-language media is concerning. The New York Times, which has been a prominent platform for promoting news stories based on studies relying on RCP8.5, has said nothing about its retirement. The BBC, which ran an episode on the RCP8.5 problem in December 2025, has also failed to publish anything on the cancellation of the extreme scenarios. Carbon Brief, a specialist outlet that has covered RCP8.5 more than any other English-language publication, has been silent.
This silence could be attributed to lag time or the story's technical nature, but it is also possible that the outlets most invested in promoting RCP8.5 have the most to lose from a clear-eyed accounting of what its retirement means for science, policy, and their own coverage. The implications of this development are far-reaching, and the lack of media coverage only adds to the mystery.
In conclusion, the retirement of extreme climate scenarios is a significant development that has not received the attention it deserves. The absence of coverage in English-language media is particularly concerning, and it is essential to keep an eye on this story as the fallout from this development unfolds.
