The 2026 IMSA SportsCar Championship season is off to a thrilling start, and the Rolex 24 is shaping up to be a race like no other. But here's the twist: the favorites have shifted dramatically since the pre-season 'Roar' test, leaving fans and teams alike wondering who truly holds the edge. After three intense practice sessions, the GTP and GTD Pro classes have new frontrunners, and the competition is fiercer than ever.
Let's dive into the data. Just like at the Roar, we analyzed all GTP class times under 1:40 minutes and calculated the averages. Importantly, the Balance of Performance (BoP) remains unchanged since the pre-test, ensuring a level playing field—at least on paper. Below are the individual results from the three free practice sessions, but beware: the third session's results come with a caveat due to three red flag interruptions.
When we combine all three sessions and average the laps under 1:40 minutes, the order emerges as follows:
- MSR-Acura #60 - 1:37.530 (43 laps under 1:40)
- AXR-Cadillac #31 - 1:37.812 (70 laps)
- Penske-Porsche #6 - 1:37.838 (69 laps)
- Penske-Porsche #7 - 1:37.848 (76 laps)
- WTR-Cadillac #10 - 1:38.012 (68 laps)
- WTR-Cadillac #40 - 1:38.031 (60 laps)
- MSR-Acura #93 - 1:38.065 (53 laps)
- WRT-BMW #24 - 1:38.163 (49 laps)
- JDC-Miller-Porsche #85 - 1:38.214 (84 laps)
- WRT-BMW #25 - 1:38.261 (33 laps)
- Thor-Aston-Martin #23 - 1:38.613 (52 laps)
The Meyer Shank Acura #60 (driven by Blomqvist, Braun, Dixon, and Allmendinger) has emerged as the fastest car by a noticeable margin. But does this make Acura the favorite? Not so fast, says Renger van der Zande from the sister #93 Acura team. He downplays their chances, stating, 'Honestly, not really. I think we have a very good car for qualifying, but I don't think we have the fastest car in the race, and that worries me. I think Cadillac and Porsche are in the best position. Hopefully I'm wrong.'
This humility hasn't gone unnoticed, with rivals from the Porsche camp joking, 'They're the world champions at playing down their chances.' Yet, Acura's argument holds some weight, as both ARX-06s have completed fewer laps under 1:40 minutes compared to their competitors. And this is the part most people miss: could Acura be sandbagging, or is there more to their strategy than meets the eye?
Cadillac, meanwhile, isn't sitting idle. The Action Express Cadillac #31 (Aitken, Bamber, Vesti, Zilisch) edged out the factory Porsches on average, while the Wayne Taylor Racing Cadillac entries follow closely behind. The Meyer-Shank Acura #93, fielded by HRC, likely ran a different program than the #60, adding another layer of intrigue.
But here's where it gets controversial: BMW's GTP debut with WRT has been fraught with challenges. Aero updates didn't perform as expected, and drivers were unhappy with the handling. However, a last-minute tweak in the final practice session has given them a glimmer of hope. Yet, closing a gap of over half a second remains a tall order. WRT team boss Vincent Vosse pleads for patience, saying, 'We are complete rookies compared to the US teams. Give us time.' But with BMW in its fourth year of the LMDh program, how much time is too much?
Aston Martin, unfortunately, hasn't seen significant improvements since the pre-test. As one insider noted, 'Daytona is a unique track, and Le Mans is in a league of its own.' So, where does that leave them in this high-stakes race?
Looking at improvements since the Roar, the GTP cars have shaved off an average of four-tenths of a second. Acura made the biggest leap, with the #60 improving by 1.004 seconds. Cadillac's Action Express Racing also showed significant progress, while Porsche's gains were more modest. But why the disparity? Is it setup improvements, strategic sandbagging, or something else entirely?
Adding to the drama are two wildcard factors: Michelin's new tires and the weather. The new slicks promise better warm-up behavior and durability, but Jack Aitken of Cadillac notes the differences aren't drastic—at least in qualifying. Meanwhile, Sunday's forecast predicts temperatures nearing 80°F, making it one of the warmest Rolex 24s in history. This limits the use of soft tires, which could favor some teams over others.
And this is the part most people miss: Acura's Van der Zande worries about tire wear, especially in longer stints. 'We put more strain on the tires than Porsche and Cadillac when accelerating out of hairpin turns,' he explains. Could this be their Achilles' heel, or will a late-race yellow flag save the day?
As the green flag approaches, one thing is clear: this race is anyone's game. But here's the question we can't stop asking: Who will rise to the top, and who will be left wondering what could have been? Share your thoughts in the comments—we want to hear your predictions and opinions!
Read Also:
- Long-run analysis for GTD Pro: Advantage Corvette ahead of Rolex 24
- Rexy vs. Grello: The Porsche icons prepare to face off in Rolex 24
- 2016 Rolex 24: Remembering the thrilling Corvette photo finish
We want your opinion! What would you like to see on Motorsport.com? Take our 5-minute survey and help shape the future of racing coverage.
- The Motorsport.com Team
